The record · updated Oct 8, 2026

Every pick, logged before kickoff.

Wins and losses, all of them. A pick goes in the log before the game starts and it never changes after that. Break-even at -110 is 52.4%, so that's the bar.

Spread picks12–1054.5% · +0.91 units at −110

Total picks6–1135.3% · −5.55 units at −110

Line value, spreads−0.2 ptsvs the closing line, 22 picks · positive beats it

Games logged6345 picks · 28 passed · 2026 season

Open picks

Date	Game	Market	Pick	Our number	Edge	Logged	Status
2026-10-08	TB @ DAL	Total	Over 47.5	52.4	4.9	2026-10-06 13:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-11	PHI @ JAX	Total	Over 42.5	45.5	3.0	2026-10-06 13:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-11	LV @ NE	Total	Under 45.5	40.7	4.8	2026-10-06 13:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-11	DET @ ARI	Spread	DET −4.5	DET −9	4.5	2026-10-06 13:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-11	DET @ ARI	Total	Under 54.5	47.6	6.9	2026-10-06 13:16 UTC	pending
2026-10-11	SF @ SEA	Total	Under 47.5	43.8	3.7	2026-10-06 13:16 UTC	pending

Graded

Date	Game	Market	Pick	Our number	Edge	Final	Result	vs close
2026-10-05	ATL @ NO	Spread	ATL +3	ATL −0.2	3.2	ATL 45 – NO 24	win	−1.5
2026-10-05	ATL @ NO	Total	Under 48.5	42	6.5	ATL 45 – NO 24	loss	+1
2026-10-04	IND @ WAS	Spread	WAS +3.5	WAS −1.6	5.1	IND 30 – WAS 13	loss	+1
2026-10-04	NE @ BUF	Spread	NE +7	NE +2.5	4.5	NE 29 – BUF 26	win	PK
2026-10-04	NE @ BUF	Total	Under 48.5	44.9	3.6	NE 29 – BUF 26	loss	−1
2026-10-04	NYJ @ CHI	Spread	CHI −3.5	CHI −10.5	7.0	NYJ 12 – CHI 23	win	PK
2026-10-04	JAX @ CIN	Spread	JAX +2.5	JAX −2.8	5.3	JAX 22 – CIN 17	win	PK
2026-10-04	DAL @ HOU	Spread	DAL +2.5	DAL −0.8	3.3	DAL 34 – HOU 30	win	+0.5
2026-10-04	ARI @ NYG	Total	Over 44.5	47.6	3.1	ARI 24 – NYG 36	win	PK
2026-10-04	GB @ TB	Total	Over 39.5	45.2	5.7	GB 17 – TB 14	loss	−1
2026-10-04	MIA @ MIN	Spread	MIA +11.5	MIA +6.4	5.1	MIA 10 – MIN 15	win	−1.5
2026-10-04	MIA @ MIN	Total	Over 38.5	42.8	4.3	MIA 10 – MIN 15	loss	PK
2026-10-04	KC @ LV	Total	Under 47.5	38.6	8.9	KC 30 – LV 27	loss	PK
2026-10-04	LAC @ SEA	Total	Under 42.5	39.1	3.4	LAC 23 – SEA 30	loss	PK
2026-10-04	DEN @ SF	Spread	SF −3	SF −6.7	3.7	DEN 14 – SF 24	win	PK
2026-09-28	PHI @ CHI	Spread	CHI +3	CHI −4	7.0	PHI 7 – CHI 27	win	+0.5
2026-09-27	LAC @ BUF	Spread	BUF −7	BUF −10.2	3.2	LAC 16 – BUF 24	win	PK
2026-09-27	LAC @ BUF	Total	Under 50.5	45.6	4.9	LAC 16 – BUF 24	win	PK
2026-09-27	HOU @ IND	Spread	IND +2.5	IND −0.5	3.0	HOU 17 – IND 19	win	−1
2026-09-27	HOU @ IND	Total	Over 43.5	46.9	3.4	HOU 17 – IND 19	loss	−2
2026-09-27	NE @ JAX	Spread	NE +3	NE −0.6	3.6	NE 6 – JAX 35	loss	PK
2026-09-27	TEN @ NYG	Total	Over 40.5	43.7	3.2	TEN 7 – NYG 12	loss	−3
2026-09-27	SEA @ WAS	Total	Over 40.5	43.7	3.2	SEA 31 – WAS 33	win	PK
2026-09-27	MIN @ TB	Spread	TB +1.5	TB −2.5	4.0	MIN 23 – TB 16	loss	PK
2026-09-27	LV @ NO	Total	Under 43.5	37	6.5	LV 35 – NO 27	loss	PK
2026-09-21	NYG @ LA	Spread	NYG +7	NYG +2.9	4.1	NYG 6 – LA 28	loss	−0.5
2026-09-21	NYG @ LA	Total	Over 47.5	52	4.5	NYG 6 – LA 28	loss	PK
2026-09-20	CAR @ ATL	Spread	ATL +2.5	ATL −0.5	3.0	CAR 34 – ATL 3	loss	PK
2026-09-20	CLE @ TB	Spread	CLE +8.5	CLE +4.9	3.6	CLE 23 – TB 19	win	PK
2026-09-20	CLE @ TB	Total	Over 41.5	44.9	3.4	CLE 23 – TB 19	win	PK
2026-09-20	PHI @ TEN	Spread	PHI −7	PHI −10	3.0	PHI 24 – TEN 20	loss	PK
2026-09-20	JAX @ DEN	Spread	JAX +2.5	JAX −4.8	7.3	JAX 13 – DEN 20	loss	PK
2026-09-20	LV @ LAC	Spread	LV +6.5	LV +2.2	4.3	LV 26 – LAC 14	win	PK
2026-09-20	LV @ LAC	Total	Under 43.5	36.4	7.1	LV 26 – LAC 14	win	PK
2026-09-20	SEA @ ARI	Total	Over 41.5	44.8	3.3	SEA 31 – ARI 7	loss	−1
2026-09-20	WAS @ DAL	Spread	WAS +4.5	WAS +0.2	4.3	WAS 20 – DAL 37	loss	−1
2026-09-20	MIA @ SF	Spread	MIA +13.5	MIA +9.1	4.4	MIA 13 – SF 35	loss	−1
2026-09-20	MIA @ SF	Total	Over 44.5	48.3	3.8	MIA 13 – SF 35	win	PK
2026-09-17	DET @ BUF	Spread	DET +5.5	DET +1.8	3.7	DET 31 – BUF 41	loss	PK

How it's scored

A pick is any game where our number is 3+ points off the book's spread or total. Everything else is a pass.
Each pick is graded against the line at the moment we logged it, at -110. One unit per pick.
"vs close" is how many points better (or worse) our number was than the closing line. Beating the close over time is the real test of an edge.
If a starting quarterback changes before kickoff, the open pick is re-priced and re-timestamped. Once a game kicks off, its row is locked.

For entertainment and information. Not betting advice. Bet only what you can afford to lose.